The Future Industry

☆☆ Future Business & Industries ☆☆

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people don't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.

The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.

So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years.

It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, Health, Autonomous and Electric Cars, Education, 3D Printing, Agriculture and Jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5 - 10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence:

Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.

This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs.
Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately.
There will be 90% less laywyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses.

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.

In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars:

In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.

Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.

You don't want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
We can transform former parking space into parks.

1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.
That will save a million lifes each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt.
Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper.

Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020.
Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric.

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:

Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination now only needs 2 kWh per cubic meter.
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.

Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health:

The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
There will be companies which will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing:

The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000 $ to 400 $ within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.

All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes.

Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.

The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities.
You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building.

By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities:

If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work:

70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.

There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture:

There will be a 100 $ agricultural robot in the future.

Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water.

The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.

Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly.
It contains more protein than meat.
It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are.

Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying.

Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity:

Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.

Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.

The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year.

So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education:

The cheapest smartphones are already at 10 $ in Africa and Asia.

Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone.

That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries.

We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer, because we see an enormous potential.

We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

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What Are The $10+ Billion Big Industries Of The Future?

Answer by Balaji Viswanathan, Founder of Belimitless.co, on Quora,

Sharing Economy: There are 100s of things that we have, but don’t use it all the time (home, car, office, bike). Sharing economy refers to someone else using it while you are not using. This is already a billion dollar industry (led by AirBnb). However, we have not seen the biggest yet and could easily be 10s of billions. I have booked 50+ days with Flightcar (renting someone else’s car while they are on travel), and I can see potential. There are 100s of segments of this industry that are emerging (such as AirEnvy and Homejoy). Things like research labs will be a part of this economy.

Electric cars: Tesla has finally started to produce a more sustainable electric car model. However, we have a long way to go in revolutionzing battery technology, distribution stations, and creating automobiles. Most likely, this will be a repacement industry.

Internet of Things: Our computers are all networked and we are able to communicate through them. Then came mobile phones that soon got networked. How about networking all the other things that we use? NEST is a recent big acqusition by Google that makes a networked thermostats. What if your Oven & Refrigerator can directly get the recipe from your friend and make a nice Cheesecake? Gartner estimates that 26 billion devices will be ready for networking by 2020. That means each one of our homes might have 25-30 such devices speaking to one another.

3d Printing: 30 years ago, printing on paper was only limited to big printing presses. Unless you were a big company, printing was not really convenient for you and had to rely on copying places. Then printers came on your desktop – revolutionizing document management significantly. The same is likely to apply in the 3D world. Right now manufacturing is limited to big factories. The 3D revolution will create a range of secondary industries, enabling completely new applications.

Smart cities: Google is making cars driverless. Alums from my college are making trash cans smart (they will compact the garbage as you throw). Our sewage systems are getting smart. In the future, a lot of boring jobs will be done by a network of smart robots.

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10 Businesses That Will Boom in 2020

To zero in on fields with plenty of jobs and good pay, start planning now.

By Rick Newman Sep 10, 2012

+ More

The most successful people tend to be lifelong learners who develop new skills long after they graduate from college or complete a training program. In fact, building multiple skill sets—such as analytical expertise combined with a liberal-arts background, or scientific knowledge with a law degree—can be a terrific way to differentiate yourself in a cluttered job market. Plus, the most lasting skills are often those that can be transferred from one field to another, as the economy ebbs and flows. 

But you have to anchor your career somewhere, so here are 10 fields that are likely to flourish in 2020:

1. Data crunching. The era of big data is just getting started, with many firms eager to tap vast new databases to gather more info on their customers, their competitors, and even themselves. The challenge isn't just crunching numbers; it's making sense of them, and gaining useful insights that can be translated into a business edge. Marketing and market research are two growing fields where the use of data is exploding.

2. Counseling and therapy. There's now widespread recognition that mental health is as important as physical health, which is likely to increase demand for professionals in this field. The BLS expects the need for marriage and family therapists, as one example, to grow 41 percent by 2020.

3. Scientific research. New technology will continue to generate breakthroughs in medicine, manufacturing, transportation, and many other fields, which means there will be strong demand for workers schooled in biology, chemistry, math, and engineering. Some areas that show particular promise: biotechnology and biomedicine, nanotechnology, robotics, and 3D printing, which allows the manufacture of physical products from a digital data file.

4. Computer engineering. A lot of software development is done overseas these days, but the need for high-level computer experts able to tie systems together is still strong. In finance and investing, for instance, high-speed computing is increasingly a prime competitive advantage. And most big companies will need networks that are faster, more seamless, and more secure.

5. Veterinarians. Pets are more popular than ever, and some of them get medical care that's practically fit for a human. The BLS expects the need for vets to rise 36 percent by 2020.

6. Environmental and conservation science. Making better use of the planet's resources will be essential as population growth strains existing infrastructure. Green energy, despite some political controversy, still seems likely to boom. Developers need more efficient ways to heat and cool buildings. And dealing with global warming may require new technology not even on the drawing board yet.

7. Some healthcare fields. It's well-known that the aging of the baby boomers will require more caregivers in many specialties. Some healthcare jobstend to be low-paying, with a lot of workers flocking to what are supposed to be "recession-proof" fields. And the need to lower overall healthcare costs could pinch some doctors, hospital workers, and diagnosticians. But demand should be strong for nurses, optometrists, audiologists, dentists, physical therapists, and some doctor specialists.

8. Management. The boss earns a lot for good reason: His job isn't as easy as it might seem. Effective management in the future will require basic business knowledge plus the ability to oversee operations in many locations and countries, and some technical know-how. Anybody who can improve a unit's performance while lowering costs should rise quickly. The BLS and IBISWorld also expect growing demand for some support fields such as human relations, benefits administration, and event planning.

9. Finance. The movement and management of money is technically complex, and integral to most companies. Plus, nontraditional investing firms such as hedge funds and private-equity firms are likely to grow as the traditional banking sector complies with new regulations and reins in risk-taking. That means there will be more need for finance experts. There may even be a shortage as students once interested in finance veer into other fields, turned off by the 2008 financial crisis and the vilification of banks.

10. Entrepreneurship. It's often overlooked, but the need for innovators running their own businesses could be more important than ever in 2020. Forecasters expect strong growth in traditional businesses such as used-car dealers, hair and nail salons, pet grooming, and office services, which means anybody able to come up with better, cheaper ways to serve customers will reap a windfall. Technology startups will no doubt keep changing the way consumers work and live. And nobody really knows what the next iPad, Twitter, or Pinterest will be—except, perhaps, some entrepreneur who's dreaming about it right now. He or she may have a bigger impact on life in 2020 than anything the forecasters see coming.

Rick Newman is the author ofRebounders: How Winners Pivot From Setback To Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman